Key Factors in Racehorse Selection part one

There are numerous key factors in selecting the appropriate horses when it comes to betting. Most punters look at results but results do not always tell the full story and results do not always marry up to form. This could apply to any sport in the world and we can use football as an example. If one team had won four games on the spin and another had lost four games then we could be forgiven for thinking that the team with four wins was a better team.

In many cases they will be but just looking at results will be a very poor indication of a horse’s ability without assessing the reasons behind the results. Using the analogy with football and we could have a Premier League team like Blackburn Rovers who recorded four straight losses but three of those were against Chelsea, Arsenal and Liverpool. Whilst a team in the first division had four wins but against teams that were a full two divisions lower.

This is a clear example of what I am talking about as the team with the four victories would clearly be a huge underdog against Blackburn Rovers in a head to head confrontation. In this instance of course then it is easy to see the gulf in quality between the two teams but in a sport like Horse Racing then the picture isn’t quite as clear. The races are graded and the horses handicapped to level the playing field but quality and form still has ample scope to shine through.

Often a series of bad or mediocre results can be for reasons to do with injury or maybe a virus had affected the yard or maybe because the horse had been lightly trained. In short then there are lots of reasons behind why a good horse could have poor recent results. Usually poor results indicate more pressing reasons but that also will not always indicate that horses will not win. In Maiden Races for example, no horse in the field will have won before as “Maidens” are horses that have yet to win a race.

So in this instance, there will be an entire race full of horses who have not won although many should have shown some potential with close call places like seconds, thirds and fourths. So it is clear then that race results does not always in itself prove an accurate indicator. Many professional punters try to find favourites that are bad and oppose them. If they can find several reasons behind why the horse may do badly today then this could be a serious indicator of a bad favourite.

Often horses that do not travel well or are having a different jockey for the first time after having good success with someone else could struggle. The key is to find horses that could struggle and this could be because of late changes to the going or for other reasons but any good betting tips should take many of these factors into account.

Carl “The Dean” Sampson