Carling Cup: Betting Analysis

The Carling Cup always throws up interesting challenges in working out who to support to win. As it is the second tier cup competition in the UK some of the top teams choose not to field a full strength side and rest some of their top star players.

It makes for an interesting betting market as bookmakers cannot assume that in the outright betting market the teams will always be under strength although this is likely to be the case. Other sides that are priced higher in the market can have a better chance to win than the prices suggest. Let’s look at the current prices using bwin.com’s outright winner market.

Chelsea and Manchester United are joint favourites priced at 6.00. Manchester United have lost Ronaldo and Tevez and made a risky signing in Michael Owen this season. Particularly up front they will need to rest one or two of Berbatov, Rooney and Owen. Players like Nani, Fletcher, Wellbeck and others all tend to appear in Carling Cup teams for Manchester United in past seasons of the Carling Cup. Although featuring these players’ means a weaker side than what you would expect Man Utd to these players are still of high quality and will be hungry to prove their point. As demonstrated last season they are able to win even using squad players.

Chelsea have in the past played with a more consistent team but new boss Carlo Ancelotti suggests he will experiment more in team selection, making the Carling Cup a prime candidate for some interesting team selections. Expect young striker Daniel Sturridge to feature in Carling Cup games along with other squad members. Chelsea are strong enough to challenge and I expect more of the first team to feature in the matches than the other top sides in the betting market.

Liverpool are priced at 7.50. Rafa Benetiz always has a strong squad at his disposal, but his focus is now on the Premiership and the Carling Cup may be considered a distraction. Benetiz has a reputation for making bizarre team selections so if he decides the Carling Cup is at the bottom of their priorities for the season an extremely weak team could be fielded. As they are top team bookmakers are worried to expose themselves too much; but I see their pursuit of the league title and the fact that Gerrard their star player may be convicted for affray shortly they may be a risky bet at present. I plan to see what team they play in their first competition match and proceed from there.

Arsenal are blessed with some of the best young players in the Premiership. Players like Wilshere, Vela, Fabianski and Simpson all play in every round of the Carling Cup where the manager likes to showcase his future stars. Wenger has been widely criticised for overdoing the selection of young players in Carling Cup games, rather than picking five or six young players he fields a full team of youngsters. At 8.00 Arsenal could do well however last season they were beaten by weaker opposition and against a higher level team the youngsters can expect to struggle. If you believe the young players can win the competition they certainly have tons of talent. My opinion is that if you are pricing the Manchester United team at 6.00, it is almost certain the reserves will play all Carling Cup matches for Arsenal so 8.00 may be a little short to take that into account.

What I love about Carling Cup betting is that you have to work out the best team that will not play their reserves, thus making them a value bet. For me Spurs at 13.00 offers the best value as proven Carling Cup winners and consistent performers. They seem to value this competition and have spent big on a good squad of players. Fans expect silverware and this competition is the best chance for them to obtain it.

Manchester City at the odds of 12.00 are also a good bet in my opinion. Because the very top teams do not tend to play their best team other teams tend to do well in this competition. Any bet on Manchester City, Everton, Aston Villa, or Spurs cannot be considered a negative wager. Manchester City in particular will be looking to amass silverware wherever they can to begin their ascent up the footballing ladder, so they are my pick for a good run in the Carling Cup this season.