WSOP 2009 Betting Analysis

For the first time I will be having a bet on the outright winner of the World Series of Poker. I was a critic of the November nine concept when it was first announced, as I wanted to know the results straight away! I accept now that the anticipation really helps make the event special. In Soccer the FA cup and many other competitions have lost their appeal and romance. We get three to four months to get psyched up for the poker main event and wait to cheer our favourite players on to life changing sums of money. The bwin.com outright winner market looks like this.

Darvin Moon – 3.50
Eric Buchman – 5.00
Phil Ivey – 6.00
Steven Begleiter – 6.50
Jeff Shulman – 7.50
Joseph Cada – 11.00
Kevin Schaffel – 13.00
Antoine Saout – 19.00
James Akenhead – 21.00

British interest will be on James Akenhead who is the short stack going into the final table. If his price drops this could be down to loyalty bets as everyone gets behind James as the underdog. No-one has really mentioned the immense talent that James possesses at the table and a quick double up could see James become a contender. His odds of 21.00 are likely to shorten in my opinion. His current betting exchange price of 16.50 supports this prediction.

Darvin Moon is the favourite at 3.50 which is a decent price considering his massive chip stack of $58,000,000. Darvin admitted that should the deck run cold on him and he stop catching cards he would expect that he will be unable to beat his more experienced poker opponents. This price may drift as other more accomplished players are right behind him and one big pot could turn everything around.

Eric Buchman at 5.00 is a decent bet priced perfectly by the bookmakers. At 6.00 or 7.00 I would be recommending this as a value bet so hats off to bwin for good pricing. Should punters look at Moons chip stack and bet accordingly, not fully appreciating the nature of poker and how quick things can turn around you might find Buchman’s price drifting slightly. At that point he will be value. He is an experienced player with previous WSOP final tables so he could easily win this event.

The price of 6.00 for Phil Ivey reflects his status in the game more than his chances to win. Correctly the bookmakers are not ruling out what would be an amazing turn around and if anyone can pull it off it will be Phil Ivey. Unfortunately his current chances as the second shortest stack without a good run of luck are worse than the odds suggest. On the betting exchanges you can get 7.4 for Ivey suggesting this price may drift out to around 7.00. Punters who believe in him may keep the price low but I would not highlight this as a good bet even if he should go on and win it. For Ivey fans this will not matter of course!

Begleiter and Shulman both have a chance and their odds on offer are accurate. They are not so large to be major value but reflect the fact their either of them have a reasonable chance of winning. Shulman in particular has the quality to skilfully manoeuvre into a position of strength at the final table. If you are going to bet on either of these participants I would suggest you take a close look at Shulman. The French player Antoine Saout is relatively inexperienced and is not getting any support on the exchanges.

It is not, however, the exchanges of the betting markets that decide the title. Every participant has a chip and a chair and any of the nine can win it. Can Darvin Moon complete a fairytale and maintain his chip lead? Can Eric Buchman break through to stardom as he has threatened to do in previous tournaments? Will Ivey make history and cause another poker boom or can Akenhead beat the short stack and win it for England? Get your bets on and wait for the action to begin in November. Oh, and my pick to win? I will be backing Eric Buchman.

/Malcolm Clarke