Will the favourites produce the goods in the Carling Cup?
This weeks Carling Cup second round matches should provide their fair share of upsets just like they always do. There is simply bigger fish to fry now with all the Premier League clubs. Even though there is a European place at stake for the tournament winners, chances are that any individual club will not win it. So what that means is that extra games in what is already a congested season will do the big clubs no favours.
The top sides will not risk injuries to key players because they are in the hunt for Champions League and Europa Cup places. The teams at the bottom of the Premier League have just as much reason to field weakened sides but for much different reasons. So an early check on the teams should indicate some good value as the lower league sides need the revenue that is generated from a good cup run.
I think that any Premier League team who is long odds on can be opposed this week. Blackburn Rovers are 1.70 away at Gillingham but just how good a price is that? Much will depend on the team that Big Sam puts out but a side in League 1 can be well placed to dump a top flight side out of the competition who is not fully focused.
Making money from sports betting tends to basically be a case of trying to predict the unexpected. Remember my tip of Burnley vs Man Utd last week? Home advantage in the early stages of the Carling Cup doesn’t mean an awful lot and West Ham Utd at 1.40 at home to Millwall is another prime example.
A quick check through past results shows just how fragile Premier League sides can be at this stage of the competition. West Ham United were a penalty shoot out away from losing to Macclesfield Town at home at the same stage last year. Bolton Wanderers were also another big name casualty who were beaten at home in the second round and they were undone 2-1 by lowly Northampton Town.
Several other top sides also had trouble getting through and West Bromich Albion were also knocked out by Hartlepool United. In the third round last year, Aston Villa who at that time were in strong contention for the Premier League title and a top four place were beaten at home by QPR.
So looking to oppose the short priced home sides this year could be a good betting strategy and when you look at some of the prices on offer then you don’t need to be right often in order to show a profit. Southend at 6.75 away to Hull City look a decent bet. Gillingham at 4.50 at home to Blackburn, Hereford Utd at 8.25 away to struggling Portsmouth may tempt a few people.
Not quite a David vs Goliath encounter but struggling Southampton may feel that a win over Birmingham City could kick start their season and it really needs kick starting given that they are having to start with a points deduction. An intriguing current price of 3.55 may be enough to tempt a few people especially as Birmingham are many peoples favourites to be relegated this season.
Millwall at 6.75 away to the Hammers looks another tempting bet if you fancy the underdog and also Swindon Town at a current 6.50 away to Wolves looks good also. The chances are that some of these lower league sides will get turned over and will be well beaten by the end of the night. But the lesser Premier sides don’t have huge squads and that can seriously impact on their performances in the early stages of the Carling Cup when Wembley Stadium and a Europa League place looks light years away.
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Carl “The Dean” Sampson
