Champions League, Round four – Group E + F
It is time for the forth round of the Champions League 2009 / 2010 on Tuesday and Wednesday. As I often do I will break down the matches of this round in two groups each, and in this text I focus on group E + F witch is played on Wednesday. If you have missed my last text you can find picks from Tuesdays matches in Champions League there.
The forth round is played between same teams that played against each others in the last round meat again, but with the “other” team as home team.
Here are the matches and odds for group E and F
Rubin Kazan 7.50 draw 4.75 FC Barcelona 1.35
Dynamo Kiev 3.45 draw 3.40 Inter Milan 2.00
Fiorentina 1.15 draw 7.00 Debreceni 15.00
Olympique Lyon 2.40 draw 3.30 FC Liverpool 2.75
My best pick:
Fiorentina vs. Debreceni, home win @ 1.15
Usually I am braver then picking the biggest favourites, but in this particular case I think that Fiorentina is a god bet even though they don’t pay too well. I even recommend you to look for handicap and halftime / fulltime odds on Fiorentina since I think that they will win this game pretty easy.
Beside the Hungarian team, Debreceni, this is a very tight and tough group and three teams are fighting for top two places above them. Debreceni is both the worse team in the group and stands without any points after three matches. That means that their chances to advance are almost zero. My guess is that they are pretty happy just to play against these big teams and sees this as a learning moment for their players.
Fiorentina on the other side is really fighting for one of top two places and after last round I think that they have the advantage over Liverpool. Lyon stands on three straight winnings and after their last win away against Liverpool, at Anfield Road, they have great chances to secure a place in Champions Leagues knock out stage.
Even though they loose against Liverpool at home on Wednesday and even if they loose against Fiorentina in the next round they will go trough if they beat Debreceni in the last round. And Fiorentina will defiantly go for a win here since they are fighting for a place in the knock out stage against Liverpool since they have the away game left to play against them.
Fiorentina is a strong team home at Stadio Artemio Franchi and I just can’t see them not win this game. So Fiorentina is a very sure pick here.
My analysis for the rest of the games
Rubin Kazan 7.50 draw 4.75 FC Barcelona 1.35
Notice that this game is an early game, starting at 18:30 CET.
Rubin Kazan took a sensational win away at Camp Nou in the last round two weeks ago. And they who had predicted that won lots of money. I think the payback was about 23 times money on that win.
Rubin has proven that they have a great capacity not only in the last game but even against Inter Milan in round two. They played 1 – 1 against Inter and had most of the chances to score a winning goal.
I still think that Barcelona is the best team, and after their loose home against Rubin they cant afford to loose again. So they will probably come to this game to win, and I think they will win as well. But the odds are not god at all to play on the away win. If I would place a bet on this game it would probably be on the draw. But as it feels right now I chose to not place any bets on this game at all.
Dynamo Kiev 3.45 draw 3.40 Inter Milan 2.00
A tough game to predict in a tough group. Three teams are standing on four points and Inter Milan is surprisingly last in this group with only three points in three games, all drawn.
Since Inter has a hard away game against Barcelona left to play their realistic chance to go trough is to win both against Dynamo here, and even a win home against Rubin Kazan in next round. Inter Milan hasn’t been that confident as I am used to see them last years but Italian teams has this strange ability to go trough anyway somehow. And I think that they will manage to do that this year as well, so I think Inter might be a god pick here.
Olympique Lyon 2.40 draw 3.30 FC Liverpool 2.75
I think that it’s totally impossible to predict the outcome of this match. Liverpool can’t afford to loose to hang on the race for the second place and. At the same time Lyon has really impressed so far in Champions League. If Liverpool can play with Gerrard and Torres I think they have a god chance to win, if not it will be really hard. I don’t even try to choose side here sine I find this game to unsure.
The odds is picked from Bwin-sportsbetting
/Best Regards Amrish
