Can David Haye Defeat Nikolai Valuev?

Not since the classy style of Lennox Lewis some years back has the British Heavyweight boxing fan had a fighter that was the undisputed World Champion. Many boxing fans would argue we still are not sure if David Haye is good enough to be that man. He certainly talks a good game but he is on the small side for a Heavyweight having boxed at Cruiserweight for the early part of his career. As if to accentuate these reported limitations, Haye is fighting the 7 foot 2 inch 23 stone man mountain Nikolai Valuev tomorrow for the WBA World Heavyweight Championship. British fans have always loved the Heavyweight division, so Haye has plenty of pressure on him to fulfil that void left since Lewis retired.

For those who enjoy boxing betting I believe this fight is so widely anticipated you must be in on the action! Using the boxing betting odds at bwin.com we can see that David Haye is currently favourite at 1.72. Valuev can be backed at 2.10 with the draw at 26.00. The draw may not necessarily be such a bad bet if the fight goes the distance. The contrast in styles makes a definitive winner difficult to call.

The entire match itself is very difficult to call because whichever fighter uses their strategy best on the night that will decide the victor in this contest. I do not think it is hard to second guess how each fighter will be approaching this fight. Haye will be relying on his speed to avoid the long jab of Valuev and use his punching power and accuracy to hit the head of his opponent, which Haye has said is a big target for him. Valuev will be trying to out jab his opponent and use his reach advantage coupled with his large height and weight advantage to make himself very difficult to reach and stifle Hayes quick attacks.

Haye is very aware of this task and knows in order to beat Valuev he will have to avoid the jabs on his way through his guard. He has tried to wind Valuev up with some mocking press conferences. This is because he wants the big man to fight him rather than using controlled boxing. If Valuev does come out angrily swinging at Haye, he will look for the big money shot to test his chin. Because fighters never seem to get close to Valuev he is rarely tested. His jab and size are usually enough to stifle his opponents and most of his victories are earned after he overwhelms his opponents.

Both fighters looked a little vulnerable after their last fight. Although Haye beat Monte Barrett well he was knocked down in the fight and on occasion he did look a little like Amir Khan where there was lots of wild swinging and boxing commentators said it was a case of “knock him down or be knocked down”. Haye must certainly be sturdier in his defence as the weight behind the Valuev punches will be more devastating than he received from Barrett.

Valuev is not unbeatable. Despite his excellent record of 50 wins in 51 fights his last fight against Evander Holyfield went to the judge’s scorecard and Valuev was awarded a controversial victory via a split decision. I watched the fight and I thought Holyfield did enough to win it. Valuev will be keen on a better performance this time. It must be noted, however, that a faster and younger Haye in Holyfields place would probably have won the fight using the same strategy. Valuev must improve to beat Haye.

In terms of a tip for this fight, I think that if Haye does not finish the fight in the first five rounds it will probably go the distance. At 1.72 I think that is a little short, but British support in a market such as this causes this to happen. If Haye defends well and boxes very cleverly I think he will win the fight. The sheer contrast in the fighting’s physical and boxing approach means you cannot miss this event. I am going to support David Haye and tip him for the fight but I would rather back him nearer 1.85. I may also have a wager on the fight going 12 rounds at 1.85. If you think Haye will win in twelve rounds that the odds for that are currently 2.75. This fight is on pay per view. Enjoy the fight and the quality undercard, which features former World Champion John Ruiz.

By Malcolm Clark