Betting on the World Cup Qualifiers part 1

This Saturday the 5th September sees the World Cup Qualifying games begin again. As the groups reach a critical stage, there are a few interesting bets to be had. I will begin in this article with group one. So far Denmark have been the strongest side with 16 points and five wins and a draw. Portugal are slumped in third place and are in danger of not qualifying. They are four points adrift of second placed Hungary and tied with Sweden on nine points.

Denmark host Portugal this Saturday while Hungary host Sweden. Both of these fixtures are critical for the away sides as defeat for either of them would almost eliminate their chances totally. But Portugal with only two wins from six matches have clearly not been the same team since Luiz Scolari left after Euro 2008 to join Chelsea.

At a current price of 2.25 to win in Denmark, they can be opposed in my mind and even if they qualify for South Africa, they will have to go through the play-offs to do it. Denmark at 2.85 current price represent far greater value as the home side. Based on current form, Denmark would be slight favourites against Portugal in my mind if they played on a neutral ground, so they simply cannot be underdogs when playing at home with qualification still not secured.

These prices mimic the situation in the Hungary versus Sweden encounter. Sweden with just six goals in six games seem to lack fire power and the Hungarians have only conceded two goals so far. However I am less convinced about this tie as in my mind, Hungary cannot be trusted even though they are second in the group four points clear of Sweden.

Group two is delicately poised with the 2004 European Champions Greece currently leading on goal difference from Switzerland with Latvia only three points adrift with Israel only a point further back. The top four play each other with Switzerland hosting Greece and Israel at home to Latvia. These look tight encounters to me but I don’t see much value in these except betting on the draw. At 3.25 in the Switzerland game and 3.35 in the Israel game then this would my best bet as I like the possibility of one of these games ending in a draw and especially given the state of the group.

What may prove an interesting little bet however comes between the groups bottom two teams. Moldova host Luxembourg and with bottom team Moldova at 1.35 and Luxembourg at 8.00 then there may be a chance here for a little punt on Luxembourg.

With only thirteen goals conceded in six matches then it is clear that they don’t get badly beaten too often. It is all too easy these days to teach defensive systems and this has drastically reduced the numbers of goals over the past few years and especially the winning margins when world class sides play minnows.

I can well see Moldova struggling to score on the night and if that’s the case then 1.35 may just be poor value and opposing them seems the better bet to me. That price seems very short for a team who only have one draw and two goals from six matches.
At this stage of the competition, playing for draws can become more beneficial to certain teams.

While I do not believe that playing for a draw is attainable at the beginning of the match, there are certain tactics that can be employed that can increase the likelihood of that happening tremendously. This weekend should be an interesting one indeed.

The odds are picked from bwin football betting.

/ Carl “The Dean” Sampson