Analysing the English Premiership Relegation Betting Market

Such is the interest in Football that despite the fact I am a supporter but not a loyal follower of the sport I still check the league tables every week, read the transfer gossip newspaper articles and websites and listen to podcasts about soccer and features on my local team. Continuing our focus on analysing the popular sports betting markets in the hunt for value bets, today we will focus on the Premiership Relegation market for this season, using the odds offered by bwin.com.

The favourites for relegation are Burnley at 1.55. They are newly promoted from the Championship but unfortunately they still have a weak squad compared to other Premiership clubs. Improving their squad is essential to their quest to remain in the Premiership next season but they have missed out on a number of summer signings. As newly promoted clubs tend to struggle unless major improvements are made they are certainly a favourite to be relegated this season.

Hull City and Birmingham City are joint second favourites for the drop at 1.90. It can be argued that Hull City only stayed up because of their good start last season, but mainly because of the terrible performances of the relegated teams in the season’s conclusion. Hull had a terrible run at the end of last season and need to improve their squad. They are expected to name their new signings very soon having missed out on a number of potential acquisitions so far this summer. Unless they hugely improve on last season’s performance they are in deep trouble. Birmingham are still adjusting from the loss of manager Steve Bruce and have been quiet in the summer transfer dealings. A pre season defeat at the hands of Crewe 4-1 has earned a blast from manager Alex McLeish and they definitely have it all to prove. Veteran striker Kevin Phillips is in the twilight of his career and if he fails to regularly score goals this may end up dragging the club into the relegation dog fight.

The following three runners in the relegation market are where I view the best value bets on offer. Wolves are priced at 2.40 after a good promotion campaign from the Championship. Although Wolves are always good in the Championship, once promoted they have a history of collapsing into relegation. There are certainly teams more like to face trouble, but without major summer signings it is right to assume the Premiership season will be difficult for them and they will find wins hard to come by.

Portsmouth are my tip for relegation this season at a decent 2.75. They have been forced to sell Peter Crouch for £9 million to Spurs and there is a rumour that David James will be rejoining Harry Redknapp at Spurs also. Having lost a number of their star players and made no significant signings the club has a dark cloud over it. We all saw what damage Newcastle United endured when the boardroom was unstable and Portsmouth could find themselves drawn into similar problems. There has also been talk of administration so a further mass sale of stars is probable. Bad times certainly for Pompey and the 2.75 may turn out to be the star bet in the market.

Stoke City are priced at 4.50 for relegation. This is certainly of reasonable value as they have made no significant signings and their overall squad strength is certainly one of the weaker around. They have, however, made several high profile signing attempts making bids for Michael Owen and Darren Bent. There is apparently around £15 million they have available to spend and will have a good chance at surviving if they can secure a few good players. They have several good players in Matt Etherington, James Beattie and Dean Whitehead already, but could easily find themselves suffering regular defeats against the top ten clubs.

A quick glance at the market sees ten clubs priced under 10.00 to be relegated. The real challenge of the Premiership is not the winning of it, but the fight for survival. How the bottom team’s fare against each other will be significant as there is an ever widening gap between the top and bottom teams. I expect that Burnley, Wolves and Portsmouth may be relegated this season but this exciting market really is wide open so having a bet will make it even more exciting.

/ Malcolm Clarke